TRIESTE – The Northeast of Italy is heading toward an unprecedented demographic squeeze: by 2035, Veneto is expected to lose nearly 239,000 people of working age, while Friuli Venezia Giulia will shed almost 50,000.

According to estimates from CGIA of Mestre (Association of Artisans and Small Businesses), based on Istat data, this adds up to a total loss of 288,000 people in the 15–64 age group, a shift that could not only weaken the region’s productive capacity but also raise serious concerns about the sustainability of essential services—starting with mobility and transport. With a shrinking workforce, it will become increasingly difficult to maintain current levels of efficiency in logistics, freight, and passenger transport, both public and private.

Breaking it down, Veneto is projected to see a 7.8% decline over the decade, with Rovigo among the hardest-hit provinces in central-northern Italy (-12.4%). It’s followed by Venice (-9.4%), Vicenza (-8.7%), Treviso (-7.7%), Padua (-7.4%), and Verona (-4.4%). In Friuli Venezia Giulia, Udine will suffer the steepest drop, with nearly 31,000 fewer working-age residents (-9.6%), followed by Gorizia (-5.5%), Trieste (-4.7%), and Pordenone (-4.1%).

The economic consequences, according to the study, go far beyond numbers. A sharp drop in the working-age population leads to reduced domestic demand, lower production capacity, and increasing difficulties in sourcing labor—especially for SMEs and labor-intensive sectors such as road haulage, urban services, and tourism/hospitality. These challenges will be compounded by growing pension and healthcare costs, in an environment where businesses are already struggling to recruit staff.

According to CGIA, the banking sector may be one of the few beneficiaries, thanks to older generations’ greater propensity to save. For all other sectors—from transport and retail to real estate and fashion—a period of stagnation or contraction is expected, with potentially irreversible effects if no urgent action is taken.

Without a paradigm shift, there is a real risk that the Northeast will lose competitiveness even in currently leading industries, undermining the resilience of Italy’s entire economic and logistics system.